World War 3 Escalation Scenarios II
Ukraine Escalation Paths Updated!
This is an updated version of our previous substack ‘World War 3 Escalation Scenarios’, with the addition of the previously deleted Step 12, including additional explanatory notes. As covered in the Hoc Est Bellum Telegram channel, there are other possibilities, including a #TurkeyEscalationPath to a #nukeEXCHANGE. However Ukraine remains the most dangerous path to destruction of a corrupt western world. Some even say that this was foretold a long time ago…
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Possible Ukraine Escalation Paths - #UkraineEscalationPaths - #EscalationScenario
Revised as per the recent developments. This scenario is specific to the Ukraine, #Kiev | #Kyiv theater.
We are at step 10AA 😒
(Note the original ‘step 12’ was deleted some time ago — Updated by PapaGregory — it is added on now: 23 Sep 2022)
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The Background
1. The US ups its anti-Russian rhetoric.
2. The Europeans immediately follow suit and also escalate.
3. Ukrainians also immediately follow suit and also escalate.
4. The LDNR republics warn of escalation and increase pressure on Russia.
5. The Russians react to all of the above and harden both their rhetoric and actions, mainly through war games.
6. The West feels like it has to show its military power, but does so again, symbolically, through war games.
7. The Russians officially declare that the West is 1) non-agreement capable and 2) hypocritical beyond words.
8. The West then uses its “soft” (political) power to harass Russia, only further making things worse;
9. Russia then shows off actual military capabilities (e.g. moving YARS RS-24s out of bunkers or amassing troops close to Ukraine borders) to oppose western symbolic actions.
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The Conflict and the End
10. The West accuses Russia of military escalation.
[Note regarding step 10. Russia has already started its “operation” in Ukraine]
10A. West purports to move military hardware and troops into Eastern Europe and Ukraine.
[10AA. West has already commenced with the movement of weapons and personnel to Ukraine. NATO places huge pressure on Russia through various escalatory means including sanctions, involvement in the theater by providing targeting intel and actual boots on the ground. Russia senses that it is involved in a #hotwar with America].
[11A. Surprise ‘first strike’ attack by one of the sides, catches the other side by complete surprise; the attack uses #EW (#ElectronicWarfare) e.g. #EMP, or other EW means, combined with an ALL OUT nuclear attack emanating from all forces including sea, land (including ally countries) and air, including any and all hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads. The targeted state succumbs and is DESTROYED. Go to the new step 24. #Surprise11A and #TheEnd. Estimated time is about "one hour" — various #ICBMs will reach their destination in about 30 minutes at latest...]
Start of notes and updates of 23 Sep 2022 »
This 11A is essentially the assault by America constituting a first strike surprise attack using a tactical nuclear weapon (or more than one) against the 300,000 (or more) troops in Ukraine which then escalates upwards, into a full scale strategic nuclear war.
But initially, in one fell swoop, America initiates this war with a direct tactical nuke attack and it is possible that most of those 300,000 troops will perish in that first assault. (There are good reasons why I think US may very well do this. For a precursory explanation go to the very end of this article, and look up the Substack link “The Story So Far and Tactical Nuclear Escalation by USA and the new Step 12”.)
The direct tactical nuke attack by US and its consequence constitute step 11A, which step is then broken down in a new provisional Step 12 which is as follows:
12. Russia, in retaliation launches nuclear attacks on military installations, inside Europe and elsewhere, and inside America, e.g. Russia launches nuclear weapons against CENTCOM in Europe and NORAD in US and all other military installations of the US. They are all ultimately destroyed. Russia may also launch conventionally against all American vessels including aircraft carriers. Russia will launch against civilian targets in Europe and America. It uses a variety of means to accomplish all this including subs and other weapons such as the Poseidon and the Avangard. US reciprocates all this, however America sustains fatal damage and is ultimately either destroyed or severely debilitated. It is much harder to assess what will happen to Russia because of its vast geography however it is certain that areas such as Moscow will be destroyed.
11. [Only if there is no 11A and therefore no Step 12] There is an ‘initial incident’. The initial incident at 'ground zero' ignites things, I think this is how a war would proceed from there (‘ground zero’ could be anything including an attack by a third country, e.g. it could include Ukraine attacking the breakaways and Russia responding hard).
[First Note: 11. This is the #step11incident ‘ignition’ incident. It could actually constitute a tactical nuclear attack at this stage, used outside Ukraine. For example, Russia could feel pressure and launch a low yield tactical nuke attack on Poland say – see “Tactical nuclear weapons may enter this theater soon” at https://t.me/FatimaRussia/2848 – if this was to happen go to “Twin Step 20 Event” and specifically 20A below. Note follow the “Twin Step 20 Event” path only if Russia launches a tactical nuke outside of Ukraine, not USA. Refer to 12 above if US attacks Russia inside Ukraine using a tactical nuke. The two scenarios are quite different].
[Second Note: 11. This is the #step11incident. It could constitute a #falseflag e.g. a chemical weapons attack, or it could constitute an intentional attack by either side, or an accidental attack.]
12. Refer to the step above - it is enlivened only if tactical nuclear weapons are used to attack Russia inside Ukraine.
13. [Only if step 11 has enlivened - continue on from this point] US/NATO now become militarily involved by attacking Russian assets directly.
End of notes and updates of 23 Sep 2022 «
14. Russia and US exchange conventionally in the area of the incident (or at ground zero).
15. One of them resorts to an attack on military installations outside ground zero but not within the US/Russia territory, e.g. Russia launches conventionally against CENTCOM in Europe.
16. The other retaliates by taking out military centers of the former.
17. This escalates to a point where all military installations everywhere except in the territory of the country proper, are targeted.
18. [Using #Kinzhal] Russia sinks all US aircraft carriers (at this point third countries take the opportunity to attack others e.g. China may take Taiwan, Iran may launch against Israel);
[Twin Step 20 Event:]
20. Now US resorts to an attack on Russian military installations INSIDE Russian territory proper.
20. Russia reacts by attacking places like NORAD and all US territorial military installations.
[20A. Russia resorts to the use of a Tactical Nuke first.]
21. US uses its 'first strike' doctrine and lunches its nukes.
22. Russia activates and launches its nuclear weapons including its missiles (e.g. Avangard) which may be already in orbit.
23. See the ‘Princeton Simulation’ (Plan A) on this channel for the rest of the story following on from step 22 above. See the Princeton Plan A simulation here: https://t.me/FatimaRussia/139
24. [From 11A above-- possible victory for the surprise attacker!!]
25. It’s a new and a very different world…
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Why America may well use nukes in Ukraine:
The Story So Far and Tactical Nuclear Escalation by USA and the new Step 12:
Tactical Nuke | Clean Nuke | Low Yield Nuke | Low Yield Nuclear
#HypersonicNukes (Link at https://t.me/FatimaRussia/1301)
#Kinzhal - Kinzhal hypersonic system
#Sarmat - Sarmat unlimited range ICBM
#Avangard - Avangard hypersonic
#Burevestnik - Burevestnik cruise missile using nuclear technology
#Poseidon - Poseidon underwater drone system
#Peresvet - Peresvet laser weapon
#Hypersonics
#WarHypothetical
#WarScenario
#WarSimulation
#UkraineEscalationPath
#Step11Incident
#Step20Event
Electronic Warfare
#PlanA #Princeston #WarSimulation
#TheWar #WW3 #WWIII
#UkraineEscalationPath