The Story So Far and Tactical Nuclear Escalation by USA and the new Step 12
America has caused this war. What could it do next and what could happen?
The Quick Preamble
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Putin:
West has crossed all the [red] lines &
They are speaking of the use of nuclear weapons against us. We have nuclear weapons too. We will use them, and we are not bluffing. &
NATO is all over the south of Russia. They don't hide it anymore.
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Shoigu:
America is running the Ukraine war &
We are at war with the Collective West [USA]‼️
What has this channel said since 4 March 2022?
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Yes, it's a #directWAR, a #hotWAR. Russians have repeatedly said this.
Russian finally confirmed that #RussiaUSAatWAR and they said that finally on the #dateOFwar which was 21 September 2022. On that day Russians announced a ‘partial mobilization’ WHICH MATCHES MAN FOR MAN THE NUMBER OF NATO INFANTRY IN EASTERN EUROPE‼️ (#The300000, #TacticalNukeUsage).
But there was also a start date to this war: See #StartDateHotwar, 4 March 2022, when it was declared by Russia (see #RussiaUSinHotwar). This is #NOTaproxywar and America is directly fighting Russia in Ukraine on Russia's door-step (#USISNOTPROXY and has #BootsOnTheGround). Russia will conduct a #stage2, following a #Step11Incident or twin #Step20Event which will involve a #NukeExchange and could possibly constitute a #SurpriseAttack culminating in something like a #Step11Incident, a twin #Step20Event, or a #surprise11A or a #step11a in a #step10AA #tacticalNukeUsage.
The Escalatory Spiral
I have read PCR (Paul Craig Roberts) for a long time. He’s usually right on point, and he delivers the truth it straight.
But today he wrote something which is way off the mark. This is what he said:
Putin Takes Decisive Step to Turn World Away from Armageddon
Putin has come to my conclusion of 8 years ago that the only way to avoid a dangerous war between the West and Russia likely to end in Armageddon is to incorporate the Donbass and liberated areas of Ukraine into Russia.
This means “game over,” as Paolo Raffone, director of the Belgian CIPI Foundation, put it. Once the areas are part of Russia, the conflict cannot continue without the West committing aggression directly against Russia.
Why did it take so long for this most obvious of all points to sink in? Indeed, if the Kremlin had accepted Donbass’ request in 2014, there would have been no conflict.
Link is here: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/09/21/putin-agrees-that-i-was-correct-8-years-ago/
This is remarkable.
PCR is a man who is well versed in US foreign policy. How could he possibly believe this? Putin’s ‘partial mobilization’ and his annexation of the southern Ukraine areas like Donetsk, will simply escalate the situation, not de-escalate it!
Having watched the vicious manner of US foreign-policy crimes for over 40 years, no other conclusion is possible. I’m sure PCR will come to this conclusion soon enough.
Yes, USA will not let this go.
Its hegemony is at stake. Its USD and dollar is at stake, and so is its very existence as a unipolar world power.
There is no way America will give up on its ‘end of history’ Wolfowitzim campaign. No way!
And we know all this because they keep on saying it.
In their own words they admit it. They make it clear what they’re after.
For example, just hours after the announcement by President Putin, Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said that that United States will retaliate with a “crushing blow” against the Russian military if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The former commander of the United States Army in Europe has warned that if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the US could try to “destroy the Black Sea Fleet or destroy Russian bases in Crimea.”
Hodges is in the know.
Russia will not, and cannot use nuclear weapons, even of the tactical variety, in Ukraine because depending on the level of the weapons’ yield, it could very well harm Russia and its new territories in Ukraine — the Novorossiya — as President Putin labelled them on September 21, 2022.
How could Russia take that risk?
No, this whole talk is about the American desire to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine as a false flag, or to directly launch an attack on ‘the 300,000’ Russian troops in Ukraine using one or more tactical nukes. As always the neo-liberal empire is gaslighting.
In fact the American regime has been developing this story (that Russia will use nukes in Ukraine) for a while.
The most powerful propaganda regime in history, has hoped that the story will take a life of its own and be well socialized, so when the Americanist regime itself uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine to attack Russia or to launch a first strike surprise attack, its Regime Media will just drive the story where they want it to go.
Biden himself warned President Putin against using tactical nukes on Sixty Minutes last Sunday (18 September 2022). This is the theme that they’re all following because they have the script.
Yet there are those like Colonel Douglas Macgregor who insist that there may not be an escalation, for example because of winter. He says that the winter will make America come to its senses and if Putin only waits out the winter, it will be the end of this war. Here’s an example argument in his interview with Judge Andrew Napolitano:
But analysis like this misses the point of the overall picture.
This war in Ukraine is about the American regime escalating and provoking the situation and at the same time creating an opportunity to use nukes themselves as either a false flag or an full on attack.
We’ve explained why this is necessary numerous times: It is about the American hegemony and the American dollar.
Look at this simple example with the late great Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky who explains it plainly:
"Why will the big war start? Huge capitals, trillions of dollars have nowhere to invest. The only way out for the US is to start a war in some part of Europe, and then a new Marshall plan. First, to supply weapons, and then to rebuild the destroyed Europe. Money demands war, money knocks. That's why Donbass is being bombed every day so that everything is destroyed, the whole of Ukraine and the whole of southern Europe are next. Everything will be in ruins. Prepare for mobilization. Partial!" Zhirinovsky
Here’s another tweet with more context, notice that he also forecast the ‘partial mobilization’. Remarkable!
In any event, the clotshot injections were about the same thing. We’ve explained all this (see the article in the substack). It’s about the dollar. So war is needed.
And as we have proven many times, US is at war with Russia and our Telegram channel (Hoc Est Bellum) is chock full of evidence of all this. I mean the facts pointing to war are overwhelming. Even when the Americanists deny it, they ironically admit it:
So assuming then that America will start this war, as it has to —and this is one possibility in competition with some of the other scenarios we’ve mentioned and have analyzed— how will the war proceed?
We’ve already drawn a possible scenario of escalation out of Ukraine.
It is here:
Now we will review this escalatory spiral or the ‘extreme escalation scenario’1 using a ‘tactical nuke in Ukraine’ example (as part of the #UkraineEscalationPath).
The overwhelming story in the media is about the use of tactical nukes by someone in Ukraine. The mainstream talks about Russia using the nukes. But it’s safe to assume that it can only be America. Assuming that, this is how the war will proceed. I mean look at this Tucker Carlson video:
So, we will use the ‘steps’ and definitions as set out in the Substack link above (“World War 3 Escalation Scenarios”).
Our readers will know that we’re currently at step 10AA and we have been there for a long while. This step is defined as follow:
10AA. West has already commenced with the movement of weapons and personnel to Ukraine. NATO places huge pressure on Russia through various escalatory means including sanctions, involvement in the theater by providing targeting intel and actual boots on the ground. Russia senses that it is involved in a #hotwar with America.
As we have explained, the escalations by the US are not stopping and they won’t stop.
We’ve explained how America and NATO have placed pressure on Russia by attacking its forces in Ukraine. Look at this link for further details:
The link goes into detail regarding the announcements of Russian government representatives as related to the start of the hostilities, commencing on 4 March 2022.
We then had the mobilization of ‘the 300,000’ on 21 September 2022 and the pronouncements by Shoigu and Putin regarding the undeniable reality that Russia was/is at war with America (or ‘the Collective West’).
As we have also said on the Telegram channel, an argument can be made that we’re in the #PostThresholdIncidents stage i.e. we’re past the #Step11Incident territory, since there have been many provocations already to which Russia has not really responded (attacks on Russia proper, attacks on ships such as Moskva, the provocative Lend-lease Acts with the supply of T-72s, or the S300s by the US, and other provocations).
So what may happen is not a ‘step 11 incident’ but a more dramatic escalation, in the form of a #step11A or a #surprise11A:
[11A. Surprise ‘first strike’ attack by one of the sides, catches the other side by complete surprise; the attack uses #EW (#ElectronicWarfare) e.g. #EMP, or other EW means, combined with an ALL OUT nuclear attack emanating from all forces including sea, land (including ally countries) and air, including any and all hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads. The targeted state succumbs and is DESTROYED. Go to the new step 24. #Surprise11A and #TheEnd. Estimated time is about "one hour" — various #ICBMs will reach their destination in about 30 minutes at latest...]
This is essentially the assault by America constituting a first strike surprise attack using a tactical nuclear weapon (or more than one) against the 300,000 troops in Ukraine which then escalates upwards, into a full scale strategic nuclear war.
But initially, in one fell swoop, America initiates this war with a direct tactical nuke attack and it is possible that most of those 300,000 troops will perish in that first assault.
This is a practical step, and a very tempting one for a regime like the American one. The regime is more than capable of undertaking such an attack and it may well do so.
As the step explains, from there a ‘slower’ war will not proceed as it would in normal circumstances of a step 11 incident with the balance of those steps starting from step 13.
The war will instead have already moved to step 24 which is effectively ‘the end’. However the step 11A as it is cast right now, does not explain all that could occur between 11A and ‘the end’ at step 24.
Accordingly, here is the new step 12 which is a rough break-down of 11A and which would (will) include the following:
Russia, in retaliation launches nuclear attacks on military installations, inside Europe and elsewhere, and inside America, e.g. Russia launches nuclear weapons against CENTCOM in Europe and NORAD in US and all other military installations of the US. They are all ultimately destroyed. Russia may also launch conventionally against all American vessels including aircraft carriers. Russia will launch against civilian targets in Europe and America. It uses a variety of means to accomplish all this including subs and other weapons such as the Poseidon and the Avangard. US reciprocates all this, however America sustains fatal damage and is ultimately either destroyed or severely debilitated. It is much harder to assess what will happen to Russia because of its vast geography however it is certain that areas such as Moscow will be destroyed.
A good simulation of the Step 11A surprise tactical nuke attack is set out within the ‘Plan A simulation’ video as devised by Princeton University which is found in the article linked below (note the simulation assumes the tactical attack will be started by Russia. No, all evidence points to America going to #Surprise11A. After the tactical war, the mode moves into a strategic war complex which results in total destruction):
Finally the substack above will be revamped adding the new step 12 (step 12 was deleted in a former life of the Ukraine escalation scenario — “World War 3 Escalation Scenarios II”)
Updated 23 Sep 2022 with typographic edits and explanatory notes, and the addition of Tucker Carlson and Zhirinovsky videos.
“Extreme”, because it will be the last one!