In order to resolve in our minds, the current #FogOfWar and the contradictions flying around everywhere in the last few days, a few points come to mind:
1-First as we’ve already said, Russia has been warning about NATO since 2007. The #NATO encroachment within Ukraine became unbearable starting in 2014/15. With the ongoing provocations, #Russia chose 2021/2022 to start the ‘resolution phase’.
2-Russia issued its effective guarantee demands late last year.
3-#US deep state is not going to provide them, which gives Russia ‘an out’ (i.e. the chance of proceeding militarily).
4-US deep state needs war, it has lost many of its wars and its time is almost up, with its dollar under constant attack (just today, it’s been reported that #Russia will use its own currency in its #China transactions and ditch the #USD).
5-As the ‘Moon of Alabama’ (MoA) says “Russia must be pushed [by the deep state] to either not intervene in the Ukrainian campaign or alternatively intervene with a huge invasion. Both would fit U.S. desires though the first is preferred. That is why the U.S. is threatening Russia with sanctions”. So, US deep state wants Russia to take a step of some sort, hence all the propaganda. If Russia doesn’t take a step against Ukraine, perhaps a #FlaseFlag by the deep state could be arranged.
6-He (MoA) says that Russia will have an outlet by using #Cuba as a base of operations i.e. installing missiles there to in turn, put pressure on US. MoA says that ‘you learn from history, the #CubanMissileCrisis worked to get nuclear missiles out of #Turkey so why not use this tactic now’. However, moving missiles or other complex systems into Latin America is extremely expensive and very risky for Russia to do at this stage and this is not 1960s. US will have various ways of overcoming that threat including through blockades, direct attacks and even capture of those complex systems. Russia will not risk that.
7-There is no doubt that Russia has moved entire armies within its borders and placed them in strategic locations over the last 12 or so months. Part of the reason may be to respond to any #Ukraine provocation. That has been used to extend the propaganda that Russia is “about to invade” so that Russia is compelled to do something.
8-As MoA says, Russia must be pushed to do something with Ukraine. Russia’s movements suggest that it may do something or may be it is ready to pounce. The only issue is, as I’ve been saying before, that Russia might take steps which are not expected. This is the thing that the US deep state is absolutely not considering. No one has mentioned an absolutely mind blowing asynchronous “military technical” move which solves all of Russia’s problems and which debilitates NATO.
9-We did mention #Turkey earlier. #Bosporus is a great possibility. Full unfettered access to those areas will give Russia absolute control over the whole of the Mediterranean, neutralizing virtually all the problems posed by NATO up and down the entire #MediterraneanSea western front and beyond. It will be a completely unexpected game changer.
10- And getting a chunk of Turkey is no issue for Russia-- Turkey has been a real piece of work as far as Russia is concerned; later we’ll go into some of the detail as to why Turkey has been a pain, which Russia will be glad to neutralize.
#AegeanSea #Greece #TerritorialWaters
#TurkeyBlackSwan
#TurkeyEscalationPath